"Mr. X, this court may be sometimes be in error; but it is never in doubt".
"Often in error, seldom in doubt." (Lev Landau)
"The Enthymeme is a (rhetorical) syllogism". Aristotle, Reth. II, 22
"Rhetoric may be defined as the faculty of discovering the possible means of persuasion." Aristotle, Reth. I.2.1
"Mr. X, this court may be sometimes be in error; but it is never in doubt".
"Often in error, seldom in doubt." (Lev Landau)
FOR AN AUTOGRAPH
Though old the thought and oft exprest,
'T is his at last who says it best.
I'll try my fortune with the rest Life is a leaf of paper white Whereon each one of us may write His word or two and then comes night Lo time and space enough we cry To write an epic so we try Our nibs upon the edge and die Muse not which way the pen to hold Luck hates the slow and loves the bold Soon come the darkness and the cold Greatly begin though thou have time But for a line be that sublime Not failure but low aim is crime.Ah with what lofty hope we came But we forget it dream of fame And scrawl as I do here a name
Under the Willows and other Poems.
Definitions of "friend"
Somebody who drops everything, runs out and cranks up his car, hits the gas, gets there fast. [Who] never stops to think, 'what's in it for me?' or 'it's way too far'. He just shows on up with his big ol' heart. Tracy Lawrence
"... cuanto más agudo entendimiento tienen los jóvenes, más inclinados están a confundirse en sus negocios, pues saben cómo comenzarlos, pero no saben cómo los han de terminar, y así se equivocan con gran daño para ellos, si no hay quien los guíe."
And one translation:
"It is well known that, although the young may not be deficient in understanding and spirit, yet they may commit many errors : having a mind to see the right thing to be done, but, wanting perseverance and a good guide, never complete anything."
another translation
... the sharper the understanding young men have, the more inclined they are to fail in their business dealings, because they know well how to start, but they don't know how to manage them, and so, they self inflict a great harm, if they lack a mentor.
References
https://www.cervantesvirtual.com/obra-visor/el-conde-lucanor--0/html/00052e2a-82b2-11df-acc7-002185ce6064_1.html
https://archive.org/details/CountLucanorYork1889/page/n175/mode/2up
"... even a perfect and complete description of the microscopic properties of a material is not enough to predict its macroscopic behaviour"
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16059
Assumptions of Adam Smith, later proved by psychologists and economists.
"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities is an ancient evil remarked by the philosophers and moralists of all ages. Their absurd presumption in their own good fortune has been less taken notice of...The chance of gain is by every man more or less overvalued, and the chance of loss is by most men undervalued, and by scarce any man, who is in tolerable health and spirits, valued more than it is worth." Wealth of Nations I.10.29–31 (1776)
"Pain, I have already had occasion to observe, is, in almost all cases, a more pungent sensation than the opposite and correspondent pleasure." The Theory of Moral Sentiments, III, ii.
"The pleasure which we are to enjoy ten years hence, interests us so little in comparison with that which we may enjoy to-day, the passion which the first excites, is naturally so weak in comparison with that violent emotion which the second is apt to give occasion to, that the one could never be any balance to the other, unless it was supported by the sense of propriety.” “The spectator,” in contrast, “does not feel the solicitations of our present appetites. To him the pleasure which we are to enjoy a week hence, or a year hence, is just as interesting as that which we are to enjoy this moment” (Theory of Moral Sentiments IV, ii).
References
Ashraf, Camerer, Loewenstein (2005) Adam Smith, Behavioral Economist. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 19, Number 3—Summer 2005—Pages 131–145 https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/loewenstein/AdamSmith.pdf
"nothing can permanently please, which does not contain in itself the reason why it is so, and not otherwise."
Samuel Taylor Coleridge, Biographia Literaria (1817)
Marcus Duronius, tribune of the plebs, said (cited by Valerius Maximums)
... quid opus libertate, si volentibus luxu perire non licet?
Gegenüber den Räthseln der Körperwelt ist der Naturforscher längst gewöhnt, mit männlicher Entsagung sein 'Ignoramus' auszusprechen. Im Rückblick auf die durchlaufene siegreiche Bahn trägt ihn dabei das stille Bewusstsein, dass, wo er jetzt nicht weiss, er wenigstens unter Umständen wissen könnte, und der- einst vielleicht wissen wird. Gegenüber dem Räthsel aber, was Materie und Kraft seien, und wie sie zu denken vermögen, muss er ein für allemal zu dem viel schwerer abzugebenden Wahrspruch sich ent- schliessen:
‘Ignorabimus!’
Über die grenzen des Naturerkennens : die sieben Welträthsel, Leipzig, 1852, p.45ff
We must not believe those, who today, with philosophical bearing and deliberative tone, prophesy the fall of culture and accept the ignorabimus. For us there is no ignorabimus, and in my opinion none whatever in natural science. In opposition to the foolish ignorabimus our slogan shall be Wir müssen wissen – wir werden wissen ("We must know — we will know.")
Hillel said:
Say not of a thing which cannot be understood that in the end it will be understood
(The Father According to Rabbi Nathan p. 117)
Which the commentators explained as:
Rambam: "Do not have your words require a distant explanation and extra examination and [only] then will the listener understand them."
Bartenura: "Do not say something that cannot be heard, for in the end it will be heard": That is to say, do not let your words be unclear, such that it is impossible to understand them immediately and at first perusal; and [do not] rely on that if the listener wants to look into them, in the end, he will understand them. As this will bring people to err from your words, lest they err and come to heresy because of you. Another explanation: Do not reveal your secret, even [saying it aloud] only to yourself, as in the end it will be heard, "since the birds of the sky make the voice travel." And the [correct] textual variant according to this explanation is, "for in the end it will be heard." But Rashi had the variant, "Do not say, 'something that can be heard, in the end it will be heard.'" And [according to this,] it is speaking about the words of Torah: Do not say about a Torah teaching that you can hear now, that you will hear it in the end (later), but rather extend your ears and hear it immediately.
English Explanation of Mishnah Bartenura: a person should make his words clear from the outset, and not speak or write in an unclear manner. Although in the end the matter might be cleared up, in the meanwhile the listener might make mistakes.
Ikar Tosafot Yom Tov: "Rambam does not explain it [this way], but rather that simple words should not be very distant and confound speech. As [Rambam] says [that] your words should not require a far-fetched explanation."
References:
https://www.sefaria.org/Pirkei_Avot.2.4?lang=bi&with=Commentary&lang2=en
https://wellcomelibrary.org/item/b28103555#?c=0&m=0&s=0&cv=50&z=-1.0837%2C0%2C3.1675%2C1.6027
Marble of Julius Caesar by Nicolas Coustou (H. 2.42 m; W. 0.96 m; D. 0.96 m). Louvre. Tuileries gardens in 1722.
Risk
Qui observat ventum non seminat; et qui considerat nubes numquam metet. Ecl 11:4
Rashi says:
And he who looks to the clouds. He observes the clouds, and when he sees them darkening, he is afraid to harvest on account of the rains; he will never harvest because he is always fearful [of the rains].
Utility Theory and wealth management:
mane semina sementem tuam et vespere ne cesset manus tua quia nescis quid magis oriatur hoc an illud et si utrumque simul melius erit. Ecl. 11:6
Sed invictae leges necessitudinis pectus alioquin procul amentia remotum prodigia ista iusta aestimatione perpendere passae non sunt. Libri novem factorum Dictorumque memorablium, v.1
Ex verbis sensum sequamur, et ex sensu rationem intelligamus, et ex ratione veritatem apprehendamus.
In Matthias Flacius, Catalogus de Testium Veritatis, iv, 151
(Hilarius Pictaviensis, De Trinit. Lib. 5)
From the words let us follow the sense, and from the sense discern the reasons, and from the reasons learn the truth. (my translation).
El pasado es arcilla que el presente
labra a su antojo. Interminablemente.
Borges
Todos los ayeres, un sueño
Los conjurados (1985)
"To be sure, the vast majority of people who are untrained can accept the results of science only on authority. But there is obviously an important difference between an establishment that is open and invites every one to come, study its methods, and suggest improvement, and one that regards the questioning of credentials as due to wickedness of heart..."
Morris R. Cohen, Reason and Nature.
The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield, and government to gain ground.
The man whose public spirit is prompted altogether by humanity and benevolence, will respect the established powers and privileges even of individuals, and still more those of the great orders and societies, into which the state is divided. Though he should consider some of them as in some measure abusive, he will content himself with moderating, what he often cannot annihilate without great violence. When he cannot conquer the rooted prejudices of the people by reason and persuasion, he will not attempt to subdue them by force... He will accommodate, as well as he can, his public arrangements to the confirmed habits and prejudices of the people; and will remedy as well as he can, the inconveniencies which may flow from the want of those regulations which the people are averse to submit to. When he cannot establish the right, he will not disdain to ameliorate the wrong; but like Solon, when he cannot establish the best system of laws, he will endeavour to establish the best that the people can bear.
The man of system, on the contrary, is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it. He goes on to establish it completely and in all its parts, without any regard either to the great interests, or to the strong prejudices which may oppose it. He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board. He does not consider that the pieces upon the chess-board have no other principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses upon them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might chuse to impress upon it. If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game of human society will go on easily and harmoniously, and is very likely to be happy and successful. If they are opposite or different, the game will go on miserably, and the society must be at all times in the highest degree of disorder.Some general, and even systematical, idea of the perfection of policy and law, may no doubt be necessary for directing the views of the statesman. But to insist upon establishing, and upon establishing all at once, and in spite of all opposition, every thing which that idea may seem to require, must often be the highest degree of arrogance. It is to erect his own judgment into the supreme standard of right and wrong. It is to fancy himself the only wise and worthy man in the commonwealth, and that his fellow-citizens should accommodate themselves to him and not he to them. It is upon this account, that of all political speculators, sovereign princes are by far the most dangerous. This arrogance is perfectly familiar to them. They entertain no doubt of the immense superiority of their own judgment.
Tiberius said:
Cunctandi causa erat metus undique imminentium discriminum, ut saepe lupum se auribus tenere diceret.
— Suetonius, De Vita Caesarum, Lib.III Tiberius, 25
Before him, Terentius:
Auribus teneo lupum, nam neque quomodo a me amittam invenio neque uti retineam scio.
— Terentius, Phormio 506
Before Terentius, Solomon:
Sicut qui apprehendit auribus canem, sic qui transit impatiens et commiscetur rixae alterius.
— Prov. 26:17
"...hitherto unconquered difficulties..."
Reference:
http://web.lemoyne.edu/~giunta/maxwell1.html
Seven traits characterize an uncultured (golem) person, and seven a sage. A sage:
(5) deals with first things first, and last things last;
Pirkei Avot, 5.7.(5)
Bartenura on Pirkei Avot 5:7:6
and he speaks to the first [point] first: And so did we find with the Holy One, blessed be He; since Moshe said to Him (Numbers 3:11), "'Who am I that I should go to Pharaoh'" - that is the first - "'and that I should bring out the Children of Israel'" - behold, the second. And the Holy One, blessed be He, answered about the first (Numbers 3:12), "'Since I will be with you'"; and about the second, "'in your bringing the people out from Egypt, you will serve God.'"
Rabbeinu Yonah on Pirkei Avot 5:7:7
and he speaks to the first [point] first and the last [point] last: And its explanation is not that he should answer about the first thing first, and about the last question last. Rather that if the first question is clarified by the last thing, he should elucidate that first, and then elucidate the first; so as to understand and clarify his answer and [so] that the thing will be assimilable for his listener. And that is why it is called first, [even if] it is last - because it precedes it [logically] and the first thing is clarified by it. And if the matter is the opposite, it is called last. And about this is it said, "to the first [point] first and the last [point] last." And this is from great wisdom and understanding of things. And the golem does not know from all of these [things].
Rambam on Pirkei Avot 5:7:1
And the third virtue is that he organizes his study and puts first what is fitting to put first and puts later what is fitting to put later. As this approach is very helpful in study. And that is his saying, "he speaks to the first [point] first and the last [point] last.
Measure what can be measured. Incorrectly attributed to Galileo:
Cournot wrote:
La vraie physique a été fondée le jour où Galilée, rejetant des spéculations depuis si longtemps stériles, a conçu l’idée […] de préciser la forme générale à donner aux expériences, en leur assignant pour objet immédiat la mesure de tout ce qui peut être mesurable dans les phénomènes naturels. (Cournot De l’origine et des limites de la correspondance entre l’algèbre et la géométrie. Paris/Algier: Hachette, p. 375)
Translated:
True physics was founded the day when Galileo, rejecting the long sterile speculations, conceived the idea […] of specifying the general form to be given to experiments, assigning them as their immediate object the measure of all that can be be measurable in natural phenomena.
Similar to the more famous dictum by Kelvin:
In physical science a first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and methods for practicably measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be.
References:
"como todo escritor, medía las virtudes de los otros por lo ejecutado por ellos y pedía que los otros lo midieran por lo que vislumbraba o planeaba. Todos los libros que había dado a la estampa le infundían un complejo arrepentimiento."
El milagro secreto (Artificios, 1944; Ficciones, 1944)
"like every writer, he measured the virtues of other writers by their performance and asked that they measured him by what he conjectured or planned. All of the books he had given to the press infused him a complex repentance."
We live in deeds, not years; in thoughts, not breaths;
In feelings, not in figures on a dial.
We should count time by heart-throbs. He most lives
Who thinks most, feels the noblest, acts the best.
And he whose heart beats quickest lives the longest:
Lives in one hour more than in years do some
Whose fat blood sleeps as it slips along their veins.
Life's but a means unto an end; that end,
Beginning, mean, and end to all things—God.
The dead have all the glory of the world.
With regards the moral fabric of the citizenry, James Madison, 4th president of the republic, stated his view:
I go on this great republican principle, that the people will have virtue and intelligence to select men of virtue and wisdom. Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks—no form of government can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea. If there be sufficient virtue and intelligence in the community, it will be exercised in the selection of these men. So that we do not depend on their virtue, or put confidence in our rulers, but in the people who are to choose them.
Judicial Powers of the National Government, [20 June] 1788
References
https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-11-02-0101
Thesis 1: Men are equal in intellectual abilities (British Moral Philosophers)
Adam Smith (Wealth of Nations, book 1, Chap. 2)
The difference of natural talents in different men is, in reality, much less than we are aware of; and the very different genius which appears to distinguish men of different professions,
when grown up to maturity, is not upon many occasions so much the cause as the effect of the division of labour. The difference between the most dissimilar characters, between a philosopher and a common street porter, for example, seems to arise not so much from nature as from habit, custom, and education. When they came into the world, and for the first six or eight years of their existence, they were, perhaps, very much alike, and neither their parents nor playfellows could perceive any remarkable difference. About that age, or soon after, they come to be employed in very different occupations. The difference of talents comes then to be taken notice of, and widens by degrees, till at last the vanity of the philosopher is willing to acknowledge scarce any resemblance... By nature a philosopher is not in genius and disposition half so different from a street porter, as a mastiff is from a greyhound, or a greyhound from a spaniel, or this last from a shepherd's dog.
David Hume (Of the Original Contract 1752)
...how nearly equal all men are in their bodily force, and even in their mental powers and faculties, till cultivated by education;
Thesis 2: Men are not equal in intellectual abilities (Enlightenment Philosophers)
John Locke (An Essay Concerning Human Understanding. book 4: chap 20, sec. 5)
affirm that there is a greater distance between some men and others in this respect than between some men and some beasts
Denis Diderot
He has not seen the insurmountable barrier that separates a man destined by nature for a given function, from a man who only brings to that function industry, interest and attention.
Where there is no effect, it is idle to look for a cause: but here the effect is certain and the depravity actual; our minds have been corrupted in proportion as the arts and sciences have improved. Will it be said, that this is a misfortune peculiar to the present age? No, gentlemen, the evils resulting from our vain curiosity are as old as the world. The daily ebb and flow of the tides are not more regularly influenced by the moon, than the morals of a people by the progress of the arts and sciences. As their light has risen above our horizon, virtue has taken flight, and the same phenomenon has been constantly observed in all times and places...
Take Greece, once peopled by heroes, who twice vanquished Asia. Letters, as yet in their infancy, had not corrupted the disposition of its inhabitants; but the progress of the sciences soon produced a dissoluteness of manners, and the imposition of the Macedonian yoke...
It was not till the days of Ennius and Terence that Rome, founded by a shepherd, and made illustrious by peasants, began to degenerate...
Reference:
Rousseau, J. The Social Contract and Discourses (1761): https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/rousseau-the-social-contract-and-discourses/simple
"In situations where limited knowledge of a system exists and the ratio of data points to variables is small, variable selection methods can often be misleading. Freedman (Am Stat 37:152-155, 1983) demonstrated how common it is to select completely unrelated variables as highly 'significant' when the number of data points is similar in magnitude to the number of variables."
Né creda mai alcuno stato potere pigliare partiti sicuri, anzi pensi di avere a prenderli tutti dubbi; perché si trova questo nell’ordine delle cose, che mai non si cerca di fuggire un inconveniente che non si incorra in un altro. Tuttavia la prudenza consiste nel saper riconoscere le qualità degli inconvenienti, e nel pigliare il meno tristo per buono.
Translation 1: Indeed, it had better recognize that it will always have to choose between risks, for that is the order of things. We never flee one peril without falling into another. Prudence lies in knowing how to distinguish between degrees of danger and in choosing the least danger as the best. (Donno transl.)
Translation 2: Never let any Government imagine that it can choose perfectly safe courses; rather let it expect to have to take very doubtful ones, because it is found in ordinary affairs that one never seeks to avoid one trouble without running into another; but prudence consists in knowing how to distinguish the character of troubles, and for choice to take the lesser evil.
Translation 3: No government should ever think that it can choose perfectly safe courses of action. Every government should expect to have to run risks, because in the ordinary course of events one never tries to avoid one trouble without running into another. Prudence consists in knowing how to weigh up troubles and choose the lesser ones.
Translation 4: In general, a ruler must never imagine that any decision he takes is safe; on the contrary he should reckon that any decision is potentially dangerous. It is in the nature of things that every time you try to avoid one danger you run into another. Good sense consists in being able to assess the dangers and choose the lesser of various evils.
(A) Some fact e is potential evidence that a hypothesis h holds, iff the probability of there being an explanatory connection between e and h, p(E(e,h)|e) > 1/2. (with e := true, e ⊬ h).* Notes to potential evidence