The Separation Effect and the Wakeby Distribution

Houghton argues that "It is possible to fit a single distribution, the Wakeby, with many combinations of parameter values that are easily compared, rather than several distribution functions, each with a different analytical form. The Wakeby distribution is a grand parent."

In traditional estimation procedures, the smallest observations can have a substantial effect on the right-hand side of the distribution. But the left-hand side does not necessarily add information to an estimate of a quantile on the right-hand side. 
In fact
Indeed, since floods are not known to follow any particular distribution, it seems intuitively better to divorce the left-hand side from the right... the Wakeby does exactly that.

The separation effect:
Matalas et al. (1975) [sampled] most of the commonly used distributions, repeated the plots for 10-year and 20-year records, and found that none of the distributions could reproduce as high a standard deviation as that found in nature. This has been termed the "separation effect". Thus, nature has skews that are even more unstable than those generated by common distributions. Moreover the authors showed that this separation effect cannot be explained by small sample properties or by auto-correlation.
And so:
The Wakeby distribution was originally introduced to account for this effect.
Moreover Kundar and Chander, p. 28 in Singh Ed.
The right the left hands of distribution can be modeled separately. The parameters a and b govern the left hand (low flows) tail while the parameters c, d and e govern the right hand (high flow) tail


Houghton () HERE

Allen Hazen

Allen Hazen 1911 Pres NEWWA.jpgC. Winslow observes:

"Allen Hazen was of very different mold. Tall, angular, somewhat precise and pedantic, he had a mind which I think might fairly class him as an intellectual giant. Even before taking his degree at MIT he assisted Hiram F. Mills in preparing the plans for the Lawrence filter, and he was in charge of the Lawrence Experiment Station from 1888 to 1893. He developed the procedures for the mechanical analysis of sand, in use to this day. He planned the sewage disposal system for the Chicago Exposition in 1893. As a consulting engineer in Boston and later in New York he built the Albany (N.Y.) filter and consulted with many municipalities (including Brisbane, Australia) on water problems. His studies on hydraulics, on hydrography, and the runoff of streams were basic in the development of these areas of engineering."

Winslow, C. E. (1953). There Were Giants in Those Days. American Journal of Public Health and the Nations Health, 43(6_Pt_2), 15-19.


HAZEN ALLEN A high speed gravity filter bed XXXV 60 Bacteria and other organisms in water XXXIII 455 Centrifugal pumps and fans LI 231 Consumption and waste of water XXXIV 218 Dams on sand foundations LXXIII 199 Decolorization of water XLVI 162 Depreciation of public utility properties LXXVII 809 Design of masonry dams LXXV 153 Filtration of water LIII 245 Filtration works L 444 Flood flows LXXVII 626 Flow of water in irrigation channels LXXX 1672 Flow of water in pipes LI 316 Gravity sand filters at Nyack NY XLV 493 Groined arches XLIII 61 Hydraulic Fill Dams LXXXIII 1713 Jordan Level Erie Canal XLIII 582 Lawrence Mass Filter XLVI 309 of proportioning concrete LIX 9 utilities Municipally LXXXI 435 Nomographic solutions for LXXVIII 1381 On Sedimentation LIII 45 Purification of sewage and water by filtration XXX 702 Purification of Water for Domestic Use erican Practice LIV Part D 131 7 Sewage disposal LIV Part E 236 Storage to be Provided in Impounding Reservoirs for Municipal Water Supply LXXVII 1539 The Albany Water Filtration Plant XLIII 244 The Bohio Dam XLVIII 277 Theory of concrete XLII 125 Tidal phenomena in New York Harbor LXXVI 2094 owned public formulas

Translation of paper by M Bechmann LIV Part D 183 Washington water filtration plant LXXII 362 Water and sewage works Columbus Ohio LXVII 399 w supply for Panama Canal LXVII water supply of the San Francisco Metropolitan District LXXX water works valuation LXIV 85 Weir measurement of stream flow LXXVII 1287 Works for the Purification of Water Supply of Washington DC LVII 307

Historical Explanation

Good resources are offered in:

  • Bennet and George (1997) Process Tracing in Case Study Research. MacArthur Foundation Workshop on Case Study Methods. HERE.
  • Clayton Roberts (1996) The Logic of Historical Explanation. Pennsylvania State UP.

Two types of Education

Stout elderly man in his 60s with long white hair, facing partway leftwardJohn Adams once said,
There are two types of education. One should teach us how to make a living and the other how to live.
 “I must study Politics and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematics and Philosophy.”
– John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, May 12, 1780.

“You will ever remember that all the end of study is to make you a good man and a useful citizen.”
– John Adams


Vico: True and Fact are Equivalent for the Latins

Image result for giambattista vicoLatinis verum et factum reciprocantur, seu ut Scholarum vulgus loquitur, convertuntur.

The problem of "influences" in the history of ideas

Image result for robin collingwoodThe problem of "influences" in the history of ideas is another perpetual problem. "Action at a distance" seems to be admissible in the  field of intellectual influences

Collingwood's pronouncement:
"...these methods of description are characteristic of that frivolous and superficial type of history which speaks of ‘influences’ and 'borrowings’ and so forth, and when it says that A is influenced by B or that A borrows from B never asks itself what there was in A that laid it open to B’s influence, or what there was in A which made it capable of borrowing from B. An historian of thought who is not content with these cheap and easy formulae will not see Hegel as filling up the chinks in eighteenth-century thought with putty taken from Plato and Aristotle." Idea of Nature, 128
Claudio Guillen
to ascertain an influence is to make a value judgment, not to measure a fact. The critic is obliged to evaluate the function or the scope of the effect of A in the making of B, for he is not listing the total amount of these effects, which are legion, but ordering them. Thus "influence" and "significant influence" are practically synonymous.
Very interesting insights from Hyrkkänen (2009):
  • according to the influence model, to explain some element of the thought of a writer A is to maintain that A has been influenced by an earlier writer B, i.e. A has adopted an element into his thinking from the works of B, or from discussions with B, or, indirectly, via C, or in some other way.
  • According to Hermerén, the influence model is misused if research is ‘totally dominated by the search for influences’ – if, in other words, ‘the billiard ball model of artistic creation’ is followed.
  • Adopting an influence entails reflecting on alternatives, which is a process of weighing more or less consciously the available influences.
  • If we perceive an adopted influence as an answer to a question, or more generally, as a solution to a problem, it becomes understandable why human beings are receptive only to some but not to all possible influences.
  • The cases of Vico and Hegel illustrate how people set apart by time can be reunited by similar problems they happen to share. Moreover, for the very reason that human beings may share similar problems, they may arrive at similar solutions.
  • would be more promising to try to explicate and understand the reasons for the similarity of problems.
  • In the case of independent invention, the interpreter has to consider or imagine the alternative solutions to the problem the inventor had in mind. In the case of an influence being adopted, the task of interpretation is to understand why the agent happened to select a certain influence from the available alternatives. In both cases, the central task of the interpretation is to answer the question of why an idea has, more or less consciously, been adopted.
Concepts (The Formative Years of R. G. Collingwood by William M. Johnston, p. 87)
  • Intellectual debts
  • Source of stimulus for his own philosophizing
  • parallels and similarities of doctrine
  • ideas traceable to x
  • "Collingwood ask us to focus not on what was borrowed, but on what led the borrower to select what he did. Intellectual borrowing tells us something about the borrower only if we go on from there to examine how it fits into the body of his thought. A corollary of this view, which Collingwood does not spell out but which he implies throughout his analyses of other men's thought, is that to borrow is to interpret... It was the multiplicity of his interests and his command of many fields of learning which made Collingwood "capable of borrowing" from Croce, Gentile, and Vico. It was his almost unique intellectual versatility which "laid [Collingwood] open to their influence." p. 87
  • "If the source of specific ideas in Collingwood is obscure, the inspiration behind his life-work is clear. He is the fully-educated man, full according to the ideal of John Ruskin... One might say of Collingwood, as of Ruskin, that he is himself the greatest influence on his own thought." p. 89-90
  • Hyrkkänen's All History is, More or Less, Intellectual History: R. G. Collingwood’s Contribution to the Theory and Methodology of Intellectual History.
  • Claudio Guillen's The Aesthetics of Literary Influence, p. 38-39

Huygens: The Rationale of Games of Chance

Image result for huygens
"Even though in games moderated purely by chance, events tend to be uncertain, the odds to win or lose can be determined with certainty. Thus, inasmuch it is uncertain to verify for true or false if someone asserts that will get a six upon the first throw of a die, it nevertheless does submit to calculations and assessment how much likely it is for him to loose or to win. "



De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae (page 521ff)

Natura quidem suas habet consuetudines

Utilissima est aestimatio probabilitatum quanquam in exemplis juridicis politicisque plerumque non tam subtili calculo opus est, quam accurata omnium circumstantiarum enumeration. Haec a Te tractata non primum a Dno. Fratre Tuo, sed aliunde me discere memini. Cum Empirice aestimamus probabilitates per experimenta successuum, quaeris an ea via tandem aestimatio perfecta obtineri possit. Idque a Te repertum scribis. Difficultas in eo mihi inesse videtur quod contingentia seu quae ab infinitis pendent circumstantiis per finita experimenta determinari non possunt; natura quidem suas habet consuetudines, natas ex reditu causarum, sed non nisi os epi to poli. Itaque quis dicet, an sequens experimentum non discessurum sit nonnihil a lege omnium praecedentium? ob ipsas rerum mutabilitates. Novi morbi inundant subinde humanum genus, quodsi ergo de mortibus quotcunque experimenta feceris, non ideo naturae rerum limites posuisti, ut pro futuro variare non possit.

Leibnizens Mathematische Schriften, Drite Folge, Driter Band. 1855 Halle. p. 83-84

Leibnizens Mathematische Schriften herausgegeben von C.I. Gerhardt. Erste Abteilung, Band III, Halle. HERE.

Writing Bad Habits

Interesting list of counterproductive habits for writing, by Dianna Booher

* Waiting for inspiration rather than approaching the task like any other
* Waiting until you're under pressure from a deadline
* Interrupting yourself from the task to check email way too frequently
* Starting to write before you've collected all the necessary information you'll need to put in that document
* Writing before thinking
* Starting to draft before you've even identified your key points
* Starting to draft before you've determined what you want the reader to do
* Starting over continually, trying to "get it right" the first time
* Trying to write in "bits and spurts" (15 minutes here and 30 minutes there)
* Allowing other people to interrupt you while writing
* Writing when you're angry or otherwise upset
* Editing and rewriting sentence by sentence as you go rather than after you finish a draft
* Checking a thesaurus to find and use complex words for simple ideas
* Trying to string together long, complex sentences
* Failing to allow a cool-off period before you proofread
* Sending out a document without first editing it or proofreading it

Social Media and the Right to Speak (Umberto Eco's view)

Italiaanse schrijver Umberto Eco , kop.jpg"Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community [...] but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots."

Flesch–Kincaid Readability Score


Real Dice Data

  1. Walter Frank Raphael Weldon (1860 - 1906) performed dice rolls on 12 dice 26,000+ times. The data was used by Pearson to develop the Chi square test.
  2. During WWII, John Kerrich, a prisoner at a German prison in Denmark, conducted similar experiments for 10,000 throws of coins. 
  3. In 2009, Zac Labby (Chicago), developed a machine to repeat Weldon’s experiment.

A sample from Kerrich's data from Stackoverflow:

00011101001111101000110101111000100111001000001110 00101010100100001001100010000111010100010000101101

Techniques for Generating/Eliciting a Hierarchy or Network of Objectives

When structuring an ill-defined problem, eliciting the underlying objectives is fundamental. The task is subjective, but it certainly help to follow a formalized strategy. Evans p. 45 lists some existing approaches.

Clemen and Reilly (2017) p. 52 ask: "How do we first separate means and fundamental objectives and then construct the fundamental-objectives hierarchy and the means-objectives network?" and suggest four guiding questions, techniques, for organizing means and fundamental objectives:
  • Why Is That Important? (WITI)
  • How can this objective be achieved?
  • What do you mean by that?
  • Of what more general objective is this an aspect?

Buede (1986) proposes two structuring methods: top down and bottom-up approaches.
  • Top-down method: it's objective-driven (close to Keeney and Raiffa 1976); "the analyst begins by ascertaining the global objectives of the decision maker and proceeds to a value structure by subdividing the objectives, sub-objectives, and so forth until a final set of attributes is obtained."
  • Bottom-up approach: it's alternative-driven. "The analyst begins by questioning the decision maker for a reasonable set of alternatives, each of which might solve the problem. Once the alternatives are defined, the analyst generates a value structure by probing the decision maker for the major differences between the identified alternatives. The analyst then categorizes these differences into groups corresponding to objectives so that a hierarchical value structure can be systematically constructed. The identified differences comprise the set of attributes."
Manheim and Hall (1967) reject the method which hinge on too much mathematization of decision components (e.g. cost-benefit analysis, and utility theory: von Neumann and Morgenstern) because they "it tends to obfuscate the issues of choice by concealing them in the mathematics of utility". Which is reasonable. The method is:
  1. goal fabric analysis: list all the known goals for the project and then identifying the various relations among the goals.
  2. utilize the goal fabric analysis to rank the alternatives. This entails mapping each new alternative onto the goal fabric (i. e., predicting the performance of the alternative with respect to some of the goals) and then, using this mapped information and the structure of the goal fabric, comparing the new alternative with one previously ranked, to fit the new one into the ranking.
"The method operates on only two alternatives at a time. Any attempt to formulate a list of goals runs into problems of consistency, overlap and varying degrees of detail of the goals. These problems are usually approached by trying to state all the goals in a uniform way. In the method we propose, however, this is precisely what is not done: the list of goals can contain overlap and different degrees of detail. We propose analyzing the list to identify explicitly all the relations among these "non-uniform" goals. The goal analysis is intended to structure the goals by identifying the relations among them that are relevant to evaluation of the alternatives." There are four relations of importance (the first two guide expansion of the goals list in order to clarify the vague goals)
  1. specification: entails explaining in more detail what we mean by the general goal. 
  2. means-end: describes how a goal can be accomplished
  3. value-wise dependence: are those goals that can be evaluated only in conjunction with other goals.
  4. value-wise independence: can be evaluated on their own, without regard to any other goals
Evans, G. (2017) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Industrial Engineering. CRC.
Clemen and Reilly (2014) Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools. CENGAGE
Keeney (1992), Value Focused Thinking. Harvard, p. 57ff
Keneey and Raiffa (1976) p. 31ff
Buede (1986) Structuring Value Attributes. Interfaces, 16. 2
Manheim and Hall (1967) Abstract representations of goals. MIT

Latin translations of Marcus Aurelius Meditations

  • W. Holtzmann (a.k.a. Xylander), (1558&1568): De seipso, seu vita sua. HERE
  • J. M. Schulz (1802) and J.F. Dubner (1840) Edited by Claude Pavur (2013)
  • Casaubon's edition (1634&1643)

Veritatem Temporis filiam esse

Truth is the Daughter of time:

Aulus Gellius (Noctes xii,11)  refers that:

If ... there were any who were neither so endowed by nature nor so well disciplined that they could easily keep themselves from sinning by their own will power, he thought that such men would all be more inclined to sin whenever they thought that their guilt could be concealed and when they had hope of impunity because of such concealment. But, said he, if men know that nothing at all can be hidden for very long, they will sin more reluctantly and more secretly. Therefore he said that one should have on his lips these verses of Sophocles, the wisest of poets:

See to it lest you try aught to conceal;
Time sees and hears all, and will all reveal.

Another one of the old poets, whose name has escaped my memory at present, called Truth the daughter of Time.
Alexandria, A.D. 641
Image result for borges biblioteca
Since the first Adam who beheld the night
And the day and the shape of his own hand,
Men have made up stories and have fixed
In stone, in metal, or on parchment
Whatever the world includes or dreams create.
Here is the fruit of their labor: the Library.
They say the wealth of volumes it contains
Outnumbers the stars or the grains
Of sand in the desert. The man
Who tried to read them all would lose
His mind and the use of his reckless eyes.
Here the great memory of the centuries
That were, the swords and the heroes,
The concise symbols of algebra,
The knowledge that fathoms the planets
Which govern destiny, the powers
Of herbs and talismanic carvings,
The verse in which love's caress endures,
The science that deciphers the solitary
Labyrinth of God, theology,
Alchemy which seeks to turn clay into gold
And all the symbols of idolatry.
The faithless say that if it were to burn,
History would burn with it. They are wrong.
Unceasing human work gave birth to this
Infinity of books. If of them all
Not even one remained, man would again
Beget each page and every line
Each work and every love of Hercules,
And every teaching of every manuscript.
In the first century of the Muslim era,
I, that Omar who subdued the Persians
And who imposes Islam on the Earth,
Order my soldiers to destroy
By fire the abundant Library,
Which will not perish... 

Live according to Nature - Marcus Aurelius

Image result for marcus aureliusThe scholar Pierre Hadot answered that living according to nature in the Stoics, meant living according to 3 disciplines:

  1. Discipline of action: living benevolently, so that all of mankind flourishes and achieves “happiness”.
  2. Discipline of Assent
  3. Discipline of Desire: self-control over irrational passions, “courage” and endurance in fear and suffering, and “self-discipline” (temperance).

Philosophers...unmanly, avoiding the business of the city and marketplace

Image result for aulus gelliusAulus Gellius addressed the role of philosophy in life.
"Philosophy, Socrates, is indeed a nice thing, if one pursue it in youth with moderation; but if one occupy oneself with it longer than is proper, it is a corrupter of men. For even if a man be well endowed by nature and follow philosophy when past his youth, he must necessarily be ignorant of all those things in which a man ought to be versed if he is to be honourable, good and of high repute. For such men are ignorant both of the laws relating to the city, and of the language which it is necessary to use in the intercourse of human society, both privately and publicly, and of the pleasures and desires of human life; in brief, they are wholly unacquainted with manners. Accordingly, when they engage in any private or public business, they become a laughing-stock; just exactly as statesmen, I suppose, become ridiculous when they enter into your debates and discussions ... to be a philosopher is not dishonourable when one is young; but when one who is already older persists in the business, the thing becomes laughable, Socrates, and I for my part feel the same towards those who philosophize as towards those who lisp and play. Whenever I see a little boy, to whom it is fitting to speak thus, lisping and playing, I am pleased, and it seems to me becoming and liberal and suited to the age of childhood; but when I hear a small boy speaking with precision, it seems to me to be a disagreeable thing; it wounds my ears and appears to be something befitting a slave. When, however, one hears a man lisping, or sees him playing, it appears ridiculous, unmanly and deserving of stripes. I feel just the same way towards the philosophers When I see philosophy in a young man, I rejoice; it seems to me fitting, and I think that the young man in question is ingenuous; that he who does not study philosophy is not ingenuous and will never himself be worthy of anything noble or generous. But when I see an older man still philosophizing and not giving it up, such a man, Socrates, seems to me to deserve stripes. For, as I have just said, it is possible for such a man, even though naturally well endowed, to become unmanly, avoiding the business of the city and the marketplace, where, as the poet says, men become “most eminent,” and living the rest of his life in hiding with young men, whispering in a corner with three or four of them, but never accomplishing anything liberal, great or satisfactory...He does not, of course, refer to that philosophy which is the teacher of all the virtues, which excels in the discharge of public and private duties alike, and which, if nothing prevents, governs cities and the State with firmness, courage and wisdom; but rather to that futile and childish attention to trifles which contributes nothing to the conduct and guidance of life, but in which people of that kind grow old in “ill-timed playmaking,”
Robert Burton in "Anatomy of Melancholy" also touches on the issue, and is
Burton grand.jpgYour greatest students are commonly no better, silly, soft fellows in their outward behaviour, absurd, ridiculous to others, and no whit experienced in worldly business; they can measure the heavens, range over the world, teach others wisdom, and yet in bargains and contracts they are circumvented by every base tradesman. Are not these men fools? and how should they be otherwise, but as so many sots in schools, when (as he well observed) they neither hear nor see such things as are commonly practised abroad? how should they get experience, by what means? "I knew in my time many scholars," saith Æneas Sylvius (in an epistle of his to Gasper Scitick, chancellor to the emperor), , "excellent well learned, but so rude, so silly, that they had no common civility, nor knew how to manage their domestic or public affairs." 

Marcus Aurelius Meditations

Concentrate every minute like a Roman—like a man—on doing what’s in front of you with precise and genuine seriousness, carefully, willingly, with justice. And on freeing yourself from all other distractions. Yes, you can—if you do everything as if it were the last thing you were doing in your life, and stop being aimless, stop letting your emotions override what your mind tells you, stop being hypocritical, self-centered, irritable.
Do external things distract you? Then make time for yourself to learn something worthwhile; stop letting yourself be pulled in all directions.
People who labor all their lives but have no purpose to direct every thought and impulse toward are wasting their time—even when hard at work. 
Don’t waste the rest of your time here worrying about other people—unless it affects the common good. It will keep you from doing anything useful. You’ll be too preoccupied with what so-and-so is doing, and why, and what they’re saying, and what they’re thinking, and what they’re up to, and all the other things that throw you off and keep you from focusing on your own things. 
If you do a job in a principled way, with diligence, energy and patience, if you keep yourself free of distractions, and keep your thoughts ... then your life will be happy.
Choose not to be harmed—and you won’t feel harmed. Don’t feel harmed—and you haven’t been 
Most of what we say and do is not essential. If you can eliminate it, you’ll have more time, and more tranquility. Ask yourself at every moment, ‘Is this necessary?’
Remember that our efforts are subject to circumstances; you weren’t aiming to do the impossible. Aiming to do what, then? To try. And you succeeded. What you set out to do is accomplished.
Tell yourself: This thought is unnecessary. This one is destructive to the people around you. This wouldn’t be what you really think (to say what you don’t think—the definition of absurdity).

Text taken with some modifications from Gregory Hays' translation of Meditations.

Books of the Century Lists

Le Monde's 100 Books of the Century 

The Stranger/The Outsider Albert Camus
In Search of Lost Time/Remembrance of Things Past Marcel Proust
The Trial Franz Kafka
The Little Prince Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Man's Fate André Malraux
Journey to the End of the Night Louis-Ferdinand Céline
The Grapes of Wrath John Steinbeck
For Whom the Bell Tolls Ernest Hemingway
Le Grand Meaulnes Alain-Fournier
Froth on the Daydream Boris Vian
The Second Sex Simone de Beauvoir
Waiting for Godot Samuel Beckett
Being and Nothingness Jean-Paul Sartre
The Name of the Rose Umberto Eco
The Gulag Archipelago Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Paroles Jacques Prévert
Alcools Guillaume Apollinaire
The Blue Lotus Hergé
The Diary of a Young Girl Anne Frank
Tristes Tropiques Claude Lévi-Strauss
Brave New World Aldous Huxley
Nineteen Eighty-Four George Orwell
Asterix the Gaul René Goscinny and Albert Uderzo
The Bald Soprano Eugène Ionesco
Three Essays on the Theory of Sexuality Sigmund Freud
The Abyss/Zeno of Bruges Marguerite Yourcenar
Lolita Vladimir Nabokov
Ulysses James Joyce
The Tartar Steppe Dino Buzzati
The Counterfeiters André Gide
The Horseman on the Roof Jean Giono
Belle du Seigneur Albert Cohen
One Hundred Years of Solitude Gabriel García Márquez
The Sound and the Fury William Faulkner
Thérèse Desqueyroux François Mauriac
Zazie in the Metro Raymond Queneau
Confusion of Feelings Stefan Zweig
Gone with the Wind Margaret Mitchell
Lady Chatterley's Lover D. H. Lawrence
The Magic Mountain Thomas Mann
Bonjour Tristesse Françoise Sagan
Le Silence de la mer Vercors
Life: A User's Manual Georges Perec
The Hound of the Baskervilles Arthur Conan Doyle
Under the Sun of Satan Georges Bernanos
The Great Gatsby F. Scott Fitzgerald
The Joke Milan Kundera
Contempt/A Ghost at Noon Alberto Moravia
The Murder of Roger Ackroyd Agatha Christie
Nadja André Breton
Aurélien Louis Aragon
The Satin Slipper Paul Claudel
Six Characters in Search of an Author Luigi Pirandello
The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui Bertolt Brecht
Friday Michel Tournier
The War of the Worlds H. G. Wells
Se questo è un uomo, Survival in Auschwitz Primo Levi
The Lord of the Rings J. R. R. Tolkien
Les Vrilles de la vigne Colette
Capital of Pain Paul Éluard
Martin Eden Jack London
Ballad of the Salt Sea Hugo Pratt
Writing Degree Zero Roland Barthes
The Lost Honour of Katharina Blum Heinrich Böll
The Opposing Shore Julien Gracq
The Order of Things Michel Foucault
On the Road Jack Kerouac
The Wonderful Adventures of Nils Selma Lagerlöf
A Room of One's Own Virginia Woolf
The Martian Chronicles Ray Bradbury
The Ravishing of Lol Stein Marguerite Duras
The Interrogation J. M. G. Le Clézio
Tropisms Nathalie Sarraute
Journal, 1887–1910 Jules Renard
Lord Jim Joseph Conrad
Écrits Jacques Lacan
The Theatre and its Double Antonin Artaud
Manhattan Transfer John Dos Passos
Ficciones Jorge Luis Borges
Moravagine Blaise Cendrars
The General of the Dead Army Ismail Kadare
Sophie's Choice William Styron
Gypsy Ballads Federico García Lorca
The Strange Case of Peter the Lett Georges Simenon
Our Lady of the Flowers Jean Genet
The Man Without Qualities Robert Musil
Furor and Mystery René Char
The Catcher in the Rye J. D. Salinger
No Orchids For Miss Blandish James Hadley Chase
Blake and Mortimer Edgar P. Jacobs
The Notebooks of Malte Laurids Brigge Rainer Maria Rilke
Second Thoughts/The Origins of Totalitarianism Michel Butor
The Burden of Our Time Hannah Arendt
The Master and Margarita Mikhail Bulgakov
The Rosy Crucifixion Henry Miller
The Big Sleep Raymond Chandler
Amers/Gaston Saint-John Perse
Gomer Goof André Franquin
Under the Volcano Malcolm Lowry
Midnight's Children Salman Rushdie

Source Wiki

The Winds in Seneca's Naturales Questiones

Winds at the Earth’s surface, and their directional sources. Loeb Classical Library

Pons Asinorum in Logic

Pons Asinorum. Kneale & Kneale 186
Kneale and Kneale, p. 186-187 explain: "Aristotle suggests a technique for finding syllogisms to prove conclusions of the four different kinds. When we want to prove a universal affirmative conclusion with two given terms, we should consider characters which entail the predicate of the proposed conclusion and characters which are entailed by the subject of the proposed conclusion. When we want to prove a particular affirmative we should consider characters which entail the predicate and characters which entail the subject. When we want to prove a universal negative we should consider characters which are incompatible with the predicate and characters which are entailed by the subject or conversely characters which are entailed by the predicate and characters which are incompatible with the subject. And finally, when we want to prove a particular negative we should consider characters which are incompatible with the predicate and characters which entail the subject. ... The diagram which Alexander [of Aphrodisias] describes is not preserved in our text of his work, but it can easily be reconstructed as shown, According to Aristotle's lettering, A is the predicate of the conclusion, B the group of characters entailed by A, Γ the group of characters that entail A, Δ the group of characters incompatible with A, E the subject of the conclusion, and Z, H, Θ the groups of characters related to it in the same way as the groups opposite are related to A. We have inserted five continuous lines to represent the five cases noticed above (two for the proof of universal negative conclusions) and a dotted line to represent the case--{Baralipton) in which we can prove a particular affirmative conclusion from premisses that would suffice to prove the universal affirmative with transposed terms."

A nicer pons asinorum from the 17th century. Source unknown

Chrysippus and his indemonstrables modes of reasoning

From the Jeremy Kirby's entry on Chrysippus in the IEP.

"...Aristotelian arguments above made use of classes. The ... relata herein are propositions [not classes]—Stoics called these ‘sayables’—rather than classes. In Aristotelian logic, the key connectives are ‘all’, ‘some’, ‘is’, and ‘is not’. In Chrysippus’ logic, the key connectives are ‘if’, ‘or’, ‘and’, ‘not’. "

  • Modus ponens: If p, q; p; ergo, q. : p→q, p, ∴q
  • Modus tollens: If p, q; not q; ergo, not p. : p→q, ¬q, ∴¬p 
  • Modus ponendo tollens: Either p or q; p; ergo not q.: p∨q, p, ¬q
  • Modus tollendo ponens-1: Either p or q; not q; ergo p.: p∨q, ¬q,  
  • Modus tollendo ponens-2: Not both p and q; p; ergo, not q. ¬(p∧q), p, ¬q
  • The consequentia mirabilis

    If a proposition follows from its own negation, then it's true.
    Some instances in which this deductive method is used are:

    • Cogito: I think
    • <> all that thinks exist
    • ergo sum: therefore I exist.
    • Suppose that all my knowledge is false
    • but at least I know that I know something, although it's wrong
    • Therefore in knowing that I know something, I don't deceive myself
    Angelelli, I. () Here
    Mirabell, I. () Here
    Kneale, W. () Here

    Johann Kaspar Sulzer: De conceptibus

    Cap. I. De conceptibus et quomodo in species et genera ordinentur.
    §l Quicquid in rerum natura sensibus nostris observatur, singulare est.

    §2 Omne singulare ab alio singulari differt eo ipso, quod est aliud, et individuum vocatur.

    §3 Omnia itaque in rerum natura sunt diversa, et licet sint innumerabilis, tamen semper unum non est alterum: unum individuum non est alterum individuum: Jacobus non est Johannes.

    §4 Quamquam vero diversa sunt, in multis tamen convenire deprehendimus. In quibus conveniunt vel similia sunt, eo respectu ad eandem referuntur classem: in quibus non conveniunt, ad diversam classem referuntur.

    §5 Quae ad eandem classem pertinent, idem nomen habent: diversa classis diversum nomen obtinet, et nomen unius classis alteri non convenit. v.g. Jacobus et Henricus, quia similes sunt, pertinent ad unam eandemque classem, cui virorum nomen est. Hinc uterque est vir. Anna vero et Maria, quia multum differunt a Jacobo et Henrico, diversam classem constituunt, quae nomine feminarum gaudet. Est ergo et Anna et Maria femina, sed vir non est femina nec femina vir.

    §6 Ex collatione igitur rerum omnium plurimae classes rerum oriuntur, et semper diversae, quia classis una non est altera, §2, 3.

    §7 Classes, quae ex similitudine individuorum promanant, erunt classes primi ordinis, et dicuntur species, vgr. mares, feminae.

    §8 Classes primi ordinis, licet diversae, similitudinem quandam habent, quae similitudo exhibet classes secundi ordinis, seu classes specierum, et tales classes vocantur genera. Sic mares et feminae ex Jacobo, Henrico, Anna, Maria orti homines nominantur, hinc mares et feminae erunt species, homines vero genus.

    §9 Classes, quae ex similitudine classium secundi ordinis oriuntur, tertii ordinis classes producunt, et generum superiorum nomine veniunt. Tale genus superius est, si homines et bruta conferuntur, et ex eo, quod utrinque vivunt et sentiunt, in unam classem ordinantur, quae classis animalium nomen habet, animal ergo erit genus superius.

    §10 Ulterius sic procedendo classes quarti, quinti, cet. ordinis exhibentur, et sic superiora semper genera nobis sistuntur, donec tandem ad unam ultimam classem perveniamus, quae supremum genus dicitur, quod ens est [ ... ].
    §13 Quod itaque genus nomen habet, et quidquid de genere dicitur, id nomen quoque habent omnia, quae sub hoc genere comprehenduntur ad individua usque, et de iis quoque absolute dicitur. Exemplum sit animal, quia homines, bruta, mares, feminae, cet. comprehendit, dicetur homo est animal, brutum, vir, femina, Jacobus, Maria, cet., est animal. Et si dicitur: animal sentit, etiam homo, brutum, vir, femina, Jacobus, Maria, sentit.

    See: Angelelli, I. (1974) LA JERARQUIA DE CLASES DE JOHANN CASPAR SULZER (1755). Cuadernos de Filosofia. Universidad de Buenos Aires. XIV, 21 , 1974


    A philosophaster is a “A shallow or pseudo-philosopher; a smatterer or pretender in philosophy”, according to the Oxford English Dictionary.

    There's also a book by Robert Burton, of Melancholic fame, by the same name. The character names are funny, all of them charlatans in philosophy and theology:

    Polypragmaticus, Pantomagus, Pedanus, Amphimacer, Theanus

    Orator: cultivated talent from a second ploughing

    For bring me a man as accomplished, as clear and acute in thinking, and as ready in delivery as you please; if, for all that, he is a stranger to social intercourse, precedent, tradition, and the manners and disposition of his fellow-countrymen, those commonplaces from which proofs are derived will avail him but little. I must have talent which has been cultivated, soil, as it were, not of a single ploughing, but both broken and given a second ploughing so as to be capable of bearing better and more abundant produce. And the cultivation is practice, listening, reading and written composition.

    Nam si tu mihi quamvis eruditum hominem adduxeris, quamvis acrem et acutum in cogitando, quamvis ad pronuntiandum expeditum, si erit idem in consuetudine civitatis, in exemplis, in institutis, in moribus ac voluntatibus civium suorum hospes, non multum ei loci proderunt illi, ex quibus argumenta promuntur. Subacto mihi ingenio opus est, ut agro non semel arato, sed et novato et iterato, quo meliores fetus possit et grandiores edere. Subactio autem est usus, auditio, lectio, litterae.

    [my free translation] If you bring me an erudite orator, intellectually clear and sharp, and able in delivery; his arguments will be of little avail to him if he's not familiar with the traditions, examples, institutions, morals, and tastes of his countrymen... 

    Cicero De Oratore, II, 131 (p. 293)

    Concepts of Evidence

    Image result for carnapFrom Carnap, Logical Foundations of Probability, p. 163. See Also Rabinovitch, p. 109
    1. Classificatory
      • e renders h probable
    2. Comparative
      • e1 renders h1 more probable than e2 renders h2
      • (e1 & e2) render h more probable than e1 alone does.
      • e1 renders h1 more probable than it does h2
    3. Quantitative
      • the probability of h on e is r